“Trump is known for being unpredictable, so all he brings with him after his election is more unpredictability… We must keep the pressure on, and we don’t know what will happen two years from now. He might end up in a mental institution… Two, three, or five years from now, the political landscape could be completely different.”

The quote above captures some of the sentiment I encountered during the climate conference held this year in Baku, Azerbaijan, while speaking to American environmental activists in attendance. A few days before the annual global climate summit -which Daraj is partaking in- began in Baku, Azerbaijan (November 11–22), Donald Trump secured a major victory, being re-elected as President of the United States.

Undoubtedly, Trump’s re-election has disrupted the landscape on crucial and existential issues, most notably the Palestinian cause, the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, the future of UNRWA, and countless other pressing questions. However, his re-election also casts a shadow over additional matters, chief among them climate change and environmental policy.

One American participant at the conference put it bluntly: “Trump is known to be uncertain, so all he got with him after his election is more uncertainty.”
This statement aptly describes the current state of affairs, especially at the Baku summit, where Trump’s return has had a palpable impact on negotiations.

After all, who can forget Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement during his first term as president in 2016?

Sean Sweeney, an American member of Climate Action Network International, reflected on the déjà vu many felt: “I was at COP when Trump was first elected in 2016. People woke up in total shock, and now it’s even worse. But this is also an opportunity for the Global South to take political leadership. The countries of the Global South are currently the most affected by climate change, and now there’s a vacuum due to changes in the European Union as well. We could see both the U.S. and Europe backtracking on their climate commitments.”

Sweeney also noted Trump’s consistency in opposing climate initiatives:
“Trump is crystal clear about not supporting the climate agenda in any form. While Democrats say, ‘Oh, poor climate, poor climate,’ their policies haven’t been much different. The U.S. recently became the largest oil and gas producer in the world—or at least it was until recently.”

Ashfaq Khalfan, Climate Justice Director at Oxfam America, shared a similar sentiment in an interview with Daraj: “The Trump administration will not make progress on renewable energy. However, the previous administration also allowed extensive fossil fuel production, so it’s hard to see significant changes. There may be more stories about increased oil exploration, but likely not much more than before. The big question is about the Inflation Reduction Act and the funds already allocated for clean energy—like tax credits for renewables and home heating. Trump says he wants to repeal some of this, but he might not be able to undo many policies because of the benefits they bring, even in Republican areas.” Yet, Trump’s stance could encourage other nations to pull back on climate commitments. 

Argentina has already withdrawn its negotiators from the Baku summit. Lebanese journalist and environmental expert Habib Maalouf attributed this move largely to Trump’s re-election, citing comparisons of oil exploration permits granted under Trump and Biden. According to The Guardian, Biden issued 20 percent more permits than Trump during his presidency, though Maalouf acknowledged Biden also provided significantly greater funding for renewable energy.

Maalouf cautioned that Trump’s actions might go beyond pulling out of the Paris Agreement; he could also withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organizes the annual COP conferences. Such a move would create substantial challenges, given the U.S.’s significant financial contributions to the convention. Reports from Climate Change News suggest Trump is under pressure to withdraw the U.S. from the UNFCCC entirely.

Khalfan emphasized the financial ramifications: “Everyone expects Trump to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The biggest impact would be on the UNFCCC budget since the U.S. contributes 20 percent of its funding. However, the framework itself might not face severe negative consequences, as other nations could step in to fill the gap.”

Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, highlighted an urgent call from G20 leaders meeting concurrently in Brazil: “G20 leaders have sent a clear message to negotiators at COP29: Do not leave Baku without achieving a successful new financial target. It is clearly in everyone’s interest.”

At the conference, U.S. Senator Ed Markey and members of the “Parliamentarians for a Fossil Fuel-Free Future” discussed the implications of President Trump’s reelection during COP. He said: “Donald Trump will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, but we will continue to expand solar and wind energy. He will have to ask conservative regions to destroy the clean energy jobs created by the Inflation Reduction Act, and not enough of them will agree to that. We can get through the next four years.” He added: “A future free of fossil fuels must be the goal.”

Becca Lawrence-Songa, a Ugandan MP and chair of the Climate Change Committee in Uganda’s Parliament, echoed these concerns in an interview:
“We need policies that allow our country to develop while addressing climate challenges. If the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement again, it will have significant consequences.”

Lawrence-Songa outlined three major implications of such a move: 

1. Impact on Development Cooperation: Global efforts to combat climate change require collaboration. If a leading nation like the U.S. pulls out, it sets a negative precedent for others. 

2. Loss of Global Leadership: The U.S. holds a key role in environmental issues. Its withdrawal could cede this influence to other nations. 

3. Climate Finance: The U.S. has historically provided substantial financial aid to global climate initiatives. Its exit may prompt other nations to deprioritize climate funding.

He continued: “There is a coalition of 24 states governed by Democrats committed to climate action, called the U.S. Climate Alliance. There is also a coalition of governors, mayors, and businesses called America All In, as well as the Climate Mayors. These groups represent about two-thirds of the population and three-quarters of the economy. These states wield significant power, and if they have enough political will, they can truly continue the challenge. So, the battle is still ongoing.”

In a separate context, CNN headlined its report, “Trump May Abandon America’s Role as Leader in Climate Technology,” highlighting that China is installing wind and solar energy projects at a faster pace than any other country in the world. The report stated that with the likely retreat of President-elect Donald Trump from the United States’ role as a global leader in climate issues, experts say China will be compelled to take on this leadership. As the world’s largest carbon polluter, China holds more influence than any other nation to make a tangible impact on global emissions.

Sean Sweeney told Daraj: “I think Chinese leadership needs to decide whether it’s serious about reaching net-zero emissions and whether it wants to lead the world in what they call ‘moderate prosperity.’”

He continued: “We have to keep up the pressure, and we don’t know what will happen two years from now. Trump might end up in a mental institution… Two, three, or five years from now, the political situation could be completely different. Climate has now become a political actor, and I’m optimistic about that. When Trump said in 2016 he would tear up the Paris Agreement, first and foremost, he couldn’t do it alone because he represents only one country,” noting that many U.S. states did not comply with Trump’s decision at the time, which is likely to happen again during his next term.

All these discussions on the sidelines of COP, along with the number of journalists covering the impact of Trump’s reelection on climate and the environment, indicate that despite his absence, Trump remains one of the most prominent figures at this summit.

This report was produced with the support of the “Qarib” program implemented by the French Media Development Agency (CFI) and funded by the French Development Agency (AFD).