Despite reports in the following days about the resumption of exports in limited quantities, the Jordanian Ministry of Energy denied this, announcing a shift to local alternatives including renewable energy, diesel, and heavy fuel oil. While this shift ensures the continuity of electricity production, it significantly increases operational costs, especially if the supply disruption continues for an extended period.

Jordan’s Gas Sources

According to the Ministry of Energy’s annual report, Jordan obtains gas from four main sources:

Israeli gas via pipelines from the Leviathan field.

Egyptian gas via pipelines.

Imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) through a floating storage vessel in Aqaba.

Domestic gas from the Risha field in the northeast of the country.

The Jordan Strategy Forum indicates that most of the gas consumed in Jordan is imported, with over 85 percent coming from Israel, amounting to 2.65 million tons of oil equivalent annually out of a total of 3.1 million. These figures illustrate the extent of Jordan’s reliance on Israeli gas, not only for electricity generation (which accounts for 68 percent of total production) but also to power essential industries such as phosphate, potash, and bromine.

Immediate, But Temporary, Alternatives

Energy and fuel expert Hashem Aqal told Daraj that “the situation is still under control, thanks to an energy reserve sufficient for twenty days and the ability to quickly switch to diesel and heavy fuel,” but he noted that “the cost is much higher, making this a temporary option that cannot be relied on for long.”

According to Aqal, “27 percent of electricity production currently comes from renewable energy, and 17 percent (about 500 megawatts) from the Attarat power plant.” He sees the current crisis as a “near-mandatory opportunity” to expand investment in oil shale, solar, and wind energy—local resources that have not been fully utilized. He also highlights Egypt’s role in supporting Jordan during the crisis by supplying 100 million cubic feet of gas per day and increasing electricity exports from 200 to 400 megawatts, which eased the pressure on the government and enabled a rapid response.

Aqal emphasizes that Jordan needs “a long-term strategic plan aimed at reducing reliance on imports and enhancing national energy security.” He points to a newly announced gas discovery by the government, estimated at 12 trillion cubic feet, enough to cover Jordan’s needs for 80 years, but notes that it is still in its early stages.

The Risks of Dependence… and the Cost of Alternatives

Economic expert Hussam Ayesh explains that “Israel turned to marketing its gas regionally—to Jordan and Egypt—due to its lack of infrastructure to export it to Europe. However, as those capabilities improve, Israel may change the terms of the agreement, whether by raising prices or reducing quantities, which reflects the fragility of relying on it.”

Ayyesh estimates that using fuel and diesel as alternatives to Israeli gas “costs between 1 million and 8 million Jordanian dinars per day.” While global energy prices rose over the past few years, especially during the Russia-Ukraine war, Jordan at the time benefited from relatively low gas prices under its agreement with Israel.

While Ayesh sees renewable energy as “an important pillar for Jordan’s future,” he stresses “the need to invest in energy storage systems so that energy can be used during non-peak hours.” He points out that “Jordan’s electricity system is among the most advanced in the region, especially compared to countries that suffer from scheduled outages due to the gap between production and consumption.”

Ayyesh concludes by saying, “Cost is not separate from sustainability,” especially in light of the growing use of electric vehicles and artificial intelligence, both of which require a more efficient electrical infrastructure. He estimates technical and administrative losses in electricity at between 12 percent and 14 percent, affirming that “reducing this waste could help stabilize or even lower prices.”

Government Reassurance… No Power Rationing

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Saleh Al-Kharabsheh affirmed that “the electrical system in the Kingdom remains stable despite the halt in gas supplies,” noting that “the government activated alternative plans to ensure continuity, including reliance on diesel and fuel oil, and converting power plants to operate on these materials without affecting network efficiency.”

Al-Kharabsheh’s statements align with those of National Electric Power Company Director General Amjad Al-Bataineh, who ruled out any rationing or power cuts, even if the war continues. He confirmed that “Jordan’s infrastructure is equipped to operate on diesel, as happened during the Egyptian gas supply disruption between 2011 and 2015.”

The Gas Agreement: 15 Years of Controversy

Israeli gas began flowing to Jordan at the beginning of 2020, following an agreement signed in 2016 between Jordan’s National Electric Power Company and Noble Energy, which was later acquired by Chevron. This agreement saved approximately $300 million compared to global market prices.

Although the House of Representatives unanimously voted in March 2019 to reject the agreement, the Constitutional Court ruled that the agreement did not require parliamentary approval, as it was signed between two companies rather than between governments, allowing it to remain in effect to this day.