The primary beneficiary of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is, without a doubt, the United States. For the first time since 1958, the regional balance of power centered on Lebanon tilts decisively toward the American side.

The agreement resembles an overt declaration of U.S. guardianship over Lebanon, a condition to which the parties on Lebanese soil—namely Iran (via Hezbollah) and Israel—have both acquiesced. 

Unlike previous agreements, such as the 2006 truce, this ceasefire includes a monitoring mechanism led by the United States. This mechanism is intended to prevent violations, though its exact details remain unclear. Notably, Israel has emphasized its unilateral right to respond if it perceives Hezbollah as posing an imminent threat, a stance supported by the U.S.

Leaked details of the agreement suggest as much. 

Without deploying a single soldier to Lebanese territory, the United States will oversee the ceasefire’s implementation from its embassy in Awkar. The agreement’s scope—both declared and undeclared—extends to supervising Lebanon’s governance, security, and borders, as well as resolving its political deadlock, such as electing a president and forming a functional government.

All indications point to an expanded American role in Lebanon, with the U.S. delving deeper into its internal affairs than ever before. This outcome follows the war Hezbollah drew Lebanon into, effectively serving it on a silver platter to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Israel exploited this opportunity to decimate Hezbollah’s old guard leadership—spare for Talal Hamieh.

This development aligns with long-standing American priorities, as Washington has sought retribution against those it blames for attacks on U.S. interests, including the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut. Israel recently assassinated key Hezbollah figures like Ibrahim Aqil and Fuad Shukr, and, in collaboration with the CIA, the Mossad eliminated Imad Mughniyeh in 2008. Today, Talal Hamieh is the only remaining leader from that original cadre accused of targeting the U.S.

Such outcomes might not have been possible without the “gift” Hezbollah handed to Netanyahu and the Americans by opening a support front for Gaza on October 8, 2023.

Hezbollah has walked itself, as if sleepwalking, into what it had long accused its opponents of pursuing: the imposition of American guardianship over Lebanon. Were it not for the fragility of conspiracy theories, one might weave a narrative accusing this party, which outwardly opposes the U.S. and Israel, of being the most useful Lebanese group to these very entities.

Rejecting conspiracy theories, however, one can at least confirm the undeniable: Hezbollah is the most deeply infiltrated Lebanese party by both Israel and the U.S. The war, now winding down, has revealed that for nearly two decades (since 2006), Hezbollah was preoccupied with accusing various Lebanese figures and factions of collaborating with Israel or the U.S. Meanwhile, the “greater and lesser satans” were effectively sharing the party’s bed. Its media machinery, charged with inciting against unarmed Lebanese individuals in the streets and on social platforms, masked a larger reality: a profound security, military, and political breach within Hezbollah’s infrastructure.

This breach culminated in the death of the party’s historic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the annihilation of its military and security leadership, and the crippling of thousands of its members in a single blow. Even more absurdly, the propaganda machine kept running, like a brakeless car crashing into a ravine, smoke billowing from the wreck while the radio continued broadcasting victory anthems.

In Hezbollah’s case, the “radio” persists with its tales of illusions, threats against defenseless individuals, and accusations of treason. All the while, the party’s surviving leadership, under Iranian direction, is signing a capitulation to the Americans and, behind them, the Israelis.

During the U.S. hostage crisis at its Tehran embassy between 1979 and 1981, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic Revolution, famously declared, “The U.S. can do nothing against us.” 

More than 45 years later, the laughter of Amos Hochstein, the U.S. envoy to the Middle East who brokered the ceasefire agreement, seems like a sarcastic rebuttal to that slogan. Hochstein, alongside the Americans, laughs last—and hardest.