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Kais Saied Wins Presidency by 89%: Tunisia’s Dive Back Into Dictatorship

Published on 08.10.2024
Reading time: 7 minutes

Around 800 people—civil activists, politicians, lawyers, and union members—took to the streets, chanting powerful slogans like “No fear, no terror, the streets belong to the people,” “A theatrical election, with absurd laws,” and “Our beautiful country, ruled by repression and dictatorship.” They marched confidently through the city, despite a heavy police presence, both in uniform and plainclothes, who were prepared for a possible confrontation with the protesters.

The news came as no surprise to most Tunisians; it was widely expected that the current president would secure a second term. Over the past months, he had worked tirelessly to remove every possible obstacle that could hinder his victory. From preventing opponents from running and imprisoning candidates, to changing the electoral law just a week before the elections, everything had been orchestrated to ensure his win.

But we held on to hope, dreaming that somehow, a miracle would prevent his victory. The days leading up to the October 6 elections were filled with heated debates. People were torn between those who supported boycotting the elections and those who believed there was still a chance to change the outcome by voting for other candidates: Ayachi Zammali, who was imprisoned during the presidential campaign and sentenced to 12 years for allegedly “forging endorsements,” and Zouhair Maghzaoui, a former supporter of President Kais Saied. The hopeful scenario was to prevent Saied from achieving a sweeping victory, fragment the votes, and perhaps force a second round.

In the final two days before the vote, a sense of anticipation stirred. Discussions erupted on social media and in private circles, with everyone analyzing and justifying their choices. These debates spilled into the streets during a protest organized by civil society groups last Friday in downtown Tunis. The protest aimed to denounce the irregularities that marred the presidential campaign and to call for an election boycott.

Around 800 people—civil activists, politicians, lawyers, and union members—took to the streets, chanting powerful slogans like “No fear, no terror, the streets belong to the people,” “A theatrical election, with absurd laws,” and “Our beautiful country, ruled by repression and dictatorship.” They marched confidently through the city, despite a heavy police presence, both in uniform and plainclothes, who were prepared for a possible confrontation with the protesters.

Conversations among the demonstrators revolved around whether to boycott or participate in the elections. For political figures like Reem Mahjoub and Nabil Hajji from the Democratic Current Party, which opposes Kais Saied, voting was futile, as Saied controlled the entire electoral process, and the outcome was predetermined. Others, like civil activist Charafeddine Yaacoubi, argued that while opposition votes may not change the election results, they would further expose the regime’s abuses, which opposition forces and civil society had been protesting in recent weeks.

But overall, there was an underlying fear—fear that this might be the last protest of its kind, the last act of defiance against Saied before democracy was entirely extinguished with his victory.

An Election Without Flavor

Election day felt like any other Sunday—a regular holiday in Tunisia. The streets were quiet in the morning, with no lines outside polling stations, a stark contrast to the scenes witnessed in previous elections in 2011, 2014, and even 2019.

We wandered through the Lafayette district in downtown Tunis. There was nothing to indicate that an election was taking place—no posters or candidate images, except for a few police cars passing by occasionally. As the day wore on, the situation remained unchanged, as though Tunisians saw no point in disrupting their weekend to cast a vote.

The state television channel broadcast live throughout the day, reporting the slow progress of voting across the country in an effort to encourage people to head to the polls. Reporters repeatedly said the same thing, “The election process is proceeding smoothly,” as if that were the ultimate goal. By 1:00 p.m., the Independent High Authority for Elections reported a turnout of just 14.16 percent.

During lunch at a downtown restaurant, no one seemed to care about the live coverage of the voting process on TV, until Farouk Bouaskar, the head of the election commission, appeared to announce the midday turnout figures. For a brief moment, people glanced at the screen, but soon returned to their meals, as if it were a matter of no significance. Some declared their intention to vote later, while others opted to abstain.

Around 4:30 p.m., we decided to visit a polling station in a suburb of Tunis. Upon arrival, we found only a small number of voters waiting in line. The school courtyard, where we had voted, felt eerily empty. The scene brought back memories of past elections post-2011, when the same courtyard had been bustling with voters.

Inside the polling station, we were surprised by the complete absence of election monitors and journalists, despite the election commission claiming to have accredited over 16,000 observers for the presidential election. The voting process took only a few minutes. There was no excitement in the air—only boredom and routine seemed to dominate the space.

Civil activist and lawyer Issam Al-Saghir summarized his experience on his social media page, writing: “This is the first time I’ve voted since 2019. The atmosphere was heavy, and suspicion, fear, and doubt were palpable. No observers, no monitors, no candidate representatives. No media, no civil society organizations. The polling stations I’ve known so well since 2011, both as a voter and as a head of polling stations, once alive with political competition, bear no resemblance to what I witnessed today. Something has ended. A spirit has left this country. I hope it hasn’t left for good. I can’t believe how much damage has been done in just five years.”

It’s worth noting that the election commission refused to grant accreditation to longstanding organizations like Mourakiboun and I Watch to monitor the election process, citing their receipt of “suspicious foreign funds.” Their bank accounts were even frozen. This comes despite the fact that the current law on associations, Decree 88 of 2011, does not prohibit organizations from receiving foreign funding. However, Article 35 of the law states that “Associations are prohibited from accepting assistance, donations, or grants from states with which Tunisia does not have diplomatic relations or from organizations that defend the interests and policies of such states.”

The opposition viewed this decision as “another expected indicator that these elections would neither be free nor transparent,” as stated by Nabil Hajji, secretary general of the Democratic Current Party, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net.

President Kais Saied has continued to tighten the noose on associations, denouncing them in his speeches as foreign agents meddling in Tunisia’s internal affairs. He accuses them of receiving foreign money and betraying the nation. Since last year, a proposal has been submitted to parliament to amend the current law on associations, aiming to impose stricter oversight on their funding. It is expected that passing this law will be a priority for the new regime immediately after the elections.

Voter Apathy: Tunisians’ Message to Saied

At 7:30 PM, the Independent Election Commission announced in a press briefing that voter turnout had reached 27.7 percent, equivalent to 2,704,155 voters out of a total of 9,753,000 registered voters. It seemed as if the commission breathed a sigh of relief that the turnout approached 30 percent, a notable increase compared to the legislative and local elections of 2022 and 2023, where participation didn’t exceed 11 percent. However, while this rise in turnout may have been significant, it also revealed that nearly 70 percent of Tunisians chose not to vote, indicating a widespread lack of faith in the process, despite the narrative being pushed by the commission and the authorities behind it.

When comparing the 2024 presidential election turnout to previous elections—39 percent in 2019 and 40 percent in 2014—it becomes clear that Tunisians’ belief in the democratic process has eroded. Kais Saied’s popularity has also waned after his first term in office.

While the official results were yet to be released later that evening, pro-government media outlets began circulating preliminary results from polling agency Sigma Conseil, which showed Saied leading significantly with 89.2 percent of the vote, compared to his opponents Ayachi Zammali (6.9 percent) and Zouhair Maghzaoui (3.9 percent). However, these results were quickly met with skepticism, as the electoral law prohibits the publication of poll results during the election process, which was still ongoing in some polling stations abroad, particularly in the United States.

The campaign managers of Saied’s competitors were quick to challenge these findings. Zammali’s campaign stated that the “premature dissemination” of alleged election results could “steer public opinion towards accepting the election outcome.”

Meanwhile, President Kais Saied wasted no time in declaring victory even before the final results were announced. He headed to Habib Bourguiba Avenue to celebrate with throngs of supporters, evoking scenes reminiscent of Tunisia’s dictatorial past. As usual, he didn’t miss the opportunity to once again threaten the “traitors, the corrupt, and the foreign agents,” pledging to “cleanse the country of them” in his upcoming term.

Should we now brace for more arrests and imprisonments, especially since 170 opposition figures have already been jailed, as recently reported by Amnesty International?