We must not allow our joy to blind us to the reality that we are facing, whether it’s Abu Muhammad al-Julani or Ahmed al-Shara, as he prefers to call himself in his attempts to rebrand.
Al-Julani or al-Shara comes to the war in Syria from Al-Qaeda. Yes, we are witnessing the collapse of one of the world’s most heinous regimes, but we are also confronting the possibility of jihadist violence, which has been tested before. So, can we control the adrenaline when we witness scenes of prisoners being released from the prisons of Aleppo and Hama?
The task is difficult, even illogical and inhumane. Some political prisoners have spent over forty years in prison. Millions of Syrians were forcibly displaced from their cities and towns, and now they return, but alongside Al-Julani, the man who ruled Idlib under “Sharia law.” This is the fate of the Syrians, and we can only imagine what is happening to their conscience as everything is taking place .
We are all captivated by the scene, as Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapses before our eyes. The question of what happens after its fall, or once the map adjusts to a different reality, is a necessary political question. But the emotions do not quite match the political question. Talking about postponing politics until the outcome of the battle is clear is like suggesting that we delay criticism of Hamas until after the war in Gaza ends, or referring us Lebanese to the “field” when questioning our future regarding Hezbollah.
Politics is being shaped now, along the roads from Aleppo to Hama, and from Hama to Homs. These roads are paved with tragedies, from the first massacre in 1982 to the defeat in Homs, the disappointment in Aleppo, and the conclusion in Idlib.
What do we do, we who cannot avert our eyes from the scene of the released prisoners? That man from Tripoli, who spent almost forty years in prison and was freed yesterday after his family had believed he was dead, and thousands of other Syrians like him. But not far from the open prisons, news arrives of a Kurdish woman whose head was cut off, and thousands of displaced Afrin residents facing the power of the Syrian National Army supported by Turkey, along with other other unsettling signals. Protecting Christians is not enough; it is not a final solution. This, of course, will not stop the adrenaline rush, but it might prevent the disappointments we have often encountered.
And then, there are parallel pitfalls to this joy, such as our failure to grasp the main context of the war. The regime is no more than a side loss in the war on Iran’s proxies. In this sense, Assad may survive with his state, which he previously named “Useful Syria”—extending from the Syrian coast to Damascus. So what about those of us who let our emotions lead us toward this likely outcome? Behind him this time, there is the Gulf —with its kingdoms and emirates, Russia, Iran, and probably Israel as well. “The field” has not helped all of them so far, but for how long can this field continue to overturn all these players?
The Syrian scene this time is full of so many elements that make predictions impossible. Who is this Al-Julani, who, overnight, became known as “Ahmed al-Shara”? Someone is orchestrating all these transformations. Who is this chef? The U.S.? Turkey? Al-Julani is a graduate of the Bucca prison in Basra, where ISIS was born, the envoy of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to Syria, the defector from ISIS, who then joned Al-Qaeda, and eventually founded Al-Nusra, which later became Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. This man has now appeared and addressed us from his “new position” as the liberator of Syrian cities from the Baath regime!
We have never faced this type of test before. Syrians are going through strange and bizarre times, with each moment bringing its own twist. Voices from all directions call for patience, most of which are filled with fear, while others are full of enthusiasm. But when one feels this isn’t enough, they begin searching for themselves amidst these shocking surprises and find nothing but waiting. At this time, a bit of joy is okay, at least in the midst of the scene of prisoners being freed and the return of families to their homes.
