Syria has initiated negotiations to facilitate the return of refugees in exchange for reconstruction and economic revitalization. These efforts coincide with the country’s reentry into the Arab League. Assistant Minister of Economy Rania Ahmed emphasized Syria’s interest in enabling those displaced by the war to return to their cities and homes. 

Yet, the objective requires revitalizing the economy in regime-controlled areas by promoting small and medium-sized projects in various sectors. To facilitate this, several legislative programs, such as Investment Law No. 18, have been launched, offering benefits to attract companies willing to invest in Syria.

One thing is certain: Syria’s return to the Arab League signifies a strengthening of Assad’s position in the Arab world and consolidates his power domestically. 

Lest We Forget …

The cost of the Syrian war has been immense, both in human lives and in terms of destruction. Unfortunately, the current focus has shifted to Syria’s economic losses at the expense of a discussion about the country’s human losses – as if the regime does not bear most responsibility for the utter devastation. 

Over the past decade, an average of 84 civilians a day were killed due to the Syrian war, while an estimated 5.6 million people have fled the country, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that at least 388,000 people have been killed since the start of the conflict. Shockingly, some 100,000 people have died due to torture while in detention, with another 100,000 individuals are still being held.

The UN reports that chemical weapons have been used 38 times since the conflict began, 32 of which are attributed to the Syrian regime. 

The war has deeply affected the lives of some 20 million people within Syria, over 11 million of whom reside in areas under government control after the regime regained more than 70% of the national territory, as noted by Fabrice Balanche, a French specialist in the political geography of Syria.

The war has impacted every Syrian citizen, and the suffering has not ceased for a moment since 2011. According to the UN World Food Program, some 12.5 million people in Syria struggle every day to secure enough food. 

Over the course of 12 years, the war has destroyed one-third of the country’s infrastructure, 70% of the electricity network, fuel and water supplies. Half of all hospitals, clinics, and dispensaries have ceased to operate. 

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 7% of Syrian homes have been completely destroyed, while an additional 20% have been damaged. 

The reconstruction process requires enormous funds. The Arab League estimates the cost at some $900 billion,  the largest reconstruction sum in modern history, while previous estimates by the Syrian and Russian governments amounted to $400 billion. 

The recent earthquake on February 6 only exacerbated the situation. As a result, the figures mentioned above may only scratch the surface.

The World Bank projects Syria’s GDP to contract by 5.5% in 2023 due to the recent earthquake, while it estimated the cost of recovery and reconstruction to amount to $7.9 billion over a three-year period.

The Problem Arose After the War 

Previously, despite the ongoing war, people were still able to secure their livelihoods, especially in relatively quiet areas. The economic situation deteriorated when the fighting ceased. In 2019, the International Crisis Group warned that, without reconstruction, the living conditions of Syrians could worsen indefinitely. 

Many people have high hopes for the Syrian economy to improve and refugees to return due to the recent Arab-Syrian rapprochement and the partial restoration of the regime’s role in the region. 

However, Joseph Daher, who teaches political science at the University of Lausanne, told Daraj that the recent developments do not necessarily entail that the Syrian population will see any short-term improvement or future economic recovery. Various obstacles play a role. 

“The normalization of the Syrian regime, which translates into diplomatic rather than economic rapprochement, does not mean there will be short term investments by the Gulf kingdoms, as they focus on their own economic reforms and challenges, such as Saudi Vision 2030,” Daher said. 

The propaganda regarding the end of the war and restoring safety in Syria does not necessarily mean that the return of refugees is feasible in the near future. Naturally, such a return would entail an economic burden, one the regime refuses to carry. 

“The regime will not allow the mass return of refugees or the mass release of political prisoners,” said Joseph Daher. “The regime has no desire to tackle such issues. I also don’t think the countries in the region will exert significant pressure to resolve such issues, as they themselves are not beacons of democracy.”

Reconstruction Barriers

In major war-affected areas like Aleppo, more than 90% of local factories have been closed, harming Syria’s economy in an unprecedented way. But that is not the only problem. International sanctions significantly weaken state capabilities and potential investments. 

“Syria’s economic recovery faces several interconnected obstacles,” said Daher. “Challenges include Syria’s political problems, the absence of a secure and stable economic environment, financial constraints, the destroyed infrastructure, and a shortage of skilled labor.”

The regime that killed and massacred its own people will not be overly concerned with reconstruction efforts that are in the best interest of the population. On the contrary, and as usual, it will only seek to kickstart the economy in a way that serves its own interests. 

“One could say that similar dynamics play a role regarding reconstruction,” said Daher. “The Syrian regime prefers a controlled reconstruction process that advances its political, economic, and security goals rather than a comprehensive reconstruction process that benefits the Syrian people.”

Decree 66

There are several laws legitimizing the atrocities carried out by the Assad regime, while similar laws are expected to be issued under the umbrella of reconstruction. 

For instance, Decree 66 aims to rebuild slums in Damascus. This was followed by Law 10 which made the decree applicable throughout Syria. When delving deeper into Decree 66, one realizes some places have been specified, which includes those where the revolution started and where people took part in protests.

Thus, Damascus’ Al-Tadamon neighborhood will be razed to the ground and rebuilt in accordance with Decree No. 10. This is the district where Amjad Youssef kidnapped, raped and killed dozens of people. 

The regime in 2019 intended to examine Jobar, Barzeh, and Qaboun in order to reconstruct them in accordance with the same law.  All these areas were home to a sizable portion of the Syrian opposition. 

Even the Law of Organizing Popular Neighborhoods seems to entail a punishment, given that the redevelopment requires people’s eviction in exchange for a compensation that may not be enough to afford decent housing in the same region. Many inhabitants have already been compelled to relocate. Many of them ended up in other slums.

Despite years of talking about reconstruction, no reconstruction of residential districts have started with the intention of re-settling people. Infrastructure and hospitals are among the reconstruction projects already in place. 

All investments have been made by private companies or in private partnerships with public companies, which implies that the influence and power of businessmen close to the regime will become more concentrated. 

The Syrian regime has used the “eloquence” of the reconstruction as a form of propaganda, as for example the real estate projects Marota City and Basilia City. Both were announced in 2017 and 2018 in bombed parts of Damascus’ Mezzeh neighborhood. 

In both areas the destruction was justified by classifying them as “informal settlements.” And so they had to be demolished. This was accompanied by a strategy of stripping ownership from Syrians whose homes were demolished. 

All of the aforementioned points to a single conclusion: without adequate housing and infrastructure, a massive return of refugees will only strain resources, increase poverty and hunger, while strengthening the Syrian regime’s dictatorial rule.