“There were bodies all around me. It was a nightmare I can never forget,” recounted Hana, a 45-year-old woman, tears streaming down her face as she sat in her tent in al-Tabqa.”The night I fled Manbij, the first thought was that we had to survive— to tell our story,” the story being that of constant displacement, of Kurds forced from one shelter to another, never knowing when they would be uprooted again.
Nearly two months have passed since the fall of the Assad regime and the end of the Baath rule in Syria. While international headlines have largely focused on the new central government—led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — and its slow but steady steps toward normalization with the international community and post-war reconstruction, a different reality is unfolding in the desert regions of the north.
As the new rulers try to consolidate power and unify the armed forces, the Autonomous Administration of Northeastern Syria (AANES), the Kurdish-led multi-ethnic authority that governs the area, is facing one of its deepest crises in its 12 years of existence.
The New Turkish Advance
In the final days of November 2024, just before the fall of the Ba’athist regime, the last remaining areas of northwestern Syria under AANES rule— Afrin, al-Shahba, and Tal Rifat— fell to a military operation led by the Syrian National Army (SNA). The Turkish-backed coalition of factions took advantage of the opportunity window provided by Assad’s departure to launch a new round of devastating attacks against the Kurdish resistance and civilian population. The bombings triggered a chaotic exodus of 150,000 people toward the eastern bank of the Euphrates.
The fate of the Kurds and the communities sharing their space hangs in the balance, dependent on the outcome of the ongoing conflict between the multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The fighting is flooding the “Martyrs’ Cemetery” in Rojava with hundreds of dead, including many civilians from political organizations. Meanwhile, the collapse of basic infrastructure, particularly access to water and electricity, is plunging the entire region into catastrophe.
“The security situation is critical,” says SDF representative Siamend Ali from his barracks. “First, Shahbah fell. Many fled to Manbij, while others took refuge in the Aleppo neighbourhood of Sheikh Maqssoud,” he explains, adjusting his glasses. “But there was no rest: the city had to be evacuated and is now in the hands of Erdogan’s allies.”
For now, the SDF is holding its ground around the strategic Tishrin Dam, just a few kilometers from Manbij.
While Turkish aircraft and drones bombard the area, activists have been travelling to the frontline to offer moral support to SDF troops in the vicinity of the Tishrin Dam. “We can’t stop going to defend the dam, it’s the last line of defense we have,” says Huda Hamad, a 42-year-old member of the women’s organization HPC-JIN and activist. But, she adds, “even though we are identified as civilians, the bombs hit us just the same.” Hamad is part of the permanent vigil organized by the political parties and social movements to protest the attacks. Since December 8, at least 24 civilians have been killed and 200 wounded in that water container.
“The Tishrin Dam is not just a source of electricity in northern Syria, but is also important for its role in agriculture,” explains Sosan Khalil, responsible for the Kobane Water Administration. In other words, the dam guarantees not only power but also food and water security for the region.
“The structure of the dam is hanging by a thread. It is under constant attack, and any breach could lead to a catastrophe,” warns another source in the administration, who requested anonymity. While a technical team remains inside the dam to monitor conditions, the dangerous situation makes them scared to come out.
The fight for water has only intensified since then. At a small water extraction plant on the Turkish border, workers have been attacked at least five times. Rahman Mohamed, a 50-year-old plant worker, explains, “The level of the Euphrates is falling because Turkey is diverting the flow with its Ataturk Dam in the north.”
Speaking from inside the plant’s noisy engine room, he adds, “We come to work in fear. Three of our colleagues have been injured by a car explosion, and another by a bullet.” Despite the risks, he and his coworkers continue their work, earning only meager wages.
These battles serve a strategic purpose for Turkey: they are the key to consolidating its influence in Syria. With negotiations between the AANES and the new administration in Damascus at a standstill, they buy the SNA and Turkey time to advance their attrition operations.
Turkey, which has always viewed the SDF as a hostile entity, has so far been deterred by the US military presence in the region seeking to fulfil its project of replacing it with friendlier actors. But conditions have improved considerably since HTS came to power, in alliance with the SNA and other armed groups.
The SDF lost thousands of its members in the fight against The Islamic State and Turkish-backed armed factions over the years. Turkey regards the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant Kurdish separatist group which it has classified as a terrorist organization. For this reason, Turkey has viewed the AANES autonomy project as a strategic threat since its formation after the popular uprising in 2011 against the Assad regime and at the early stages of the civil war.
One of Turkey’s main concerns was the emergence of Kurdish political organizations—most notably the YPG (Popular Resistance Forces) —which established a de facto autonomous administration through agreements with Arab tribal leaders and various ethnic and religious communities. This authority gradually expanded control over regional governance, achieving significant degrees of self-rule by taking charge of the day-to-day affairs of the region. Many Kurds refer to this region as “Rojava Kurdistan.”
The Role of Tribes
Since the time of the Ottoman Empire, the Kurds have been concentrated in a crescent-shaped region spanning the borders of present-day Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Armenia. Following the division of the region under the Sykes-Picot Agreement, the now 40 million Kurds were left stateless, with their grievances spanning a century.
In an attempt to placate them, Hafez al-Assad implemented a series of demographic engineering policies starting in 1970, aiming to alter the ethnic composition of Kurdish-majority areas. He pushed and convinced Arab Bedouin tribes, such as the al-Bursan and al-Walda, to settle in northern Syria. Discrimination against the Kurds did not cease during Bashar’s rule. Likewise, Turkey pursued a similar strategy from the north, most notably in 2018 when Turkish President Erdogan proposed resettling more than 3 million Syrian refugees to the border region.
These demographic shifts have further complicated the balance of power, reducing the Kurds to a minority that has had to face the challenge of integrating Arabs politically.
This was the basis of Ankara’s advantage on the ground in Manbij, as spokesman Siamend Ali explains: “a fraction of tribes there were always hostile to the administration, but that is not the case throughout the territory.”
In his office, Sheikh Bandar of the powerful Shammar tribe near the Iraqi border explains, “Some tribes fought alongside ISIS, but we joined the fight against them with a unit of 4,000 soldiers known as Al Sanadid.” The sheikh continued, “We have fought for the liberation of the region since 2014 when we agreed to be part of the SDF, and since then, we have been responsible for the security of this region.”
This alliance is a cornerstone of the AANES’s sustainability, built on years of defending communities against ISIS, which carried out dozens of massacres against Arab tribes. According to Sheikh Bandar, “Daesh did not respect tribal [structures], while the administration did.” This distinction is important, as the Kurds, a minority, base their system on respect for tribal structures, unlike ISIS before, the sheik explained. This relationship is central to understanding potential shifts in alliances in the future.
Sitting on mattresses beside his home’s heater in Ar-Raqqa, Sheikh Faris Hauran firmly stated his position: “Although we have our criticism of the administration and desire a unified Syria, we have a respectful relationship with our rulers. We do not support any form of military action; on the contrary, we seek peaceful political solutions.”
Since 2016, Turkey has launched four military raids against this autonomous entity, including Operation Euphrates Shield and Operation Olive Branch, capturing large areas along its borders and displacing hundreds of thousands of people in an effort to dismantle any alternative governance structure. The ongoing bombardment of civilian areas indicates that these incursions will not cease even after Assad’s fall.
A New Humanitarian Crisis
“We ended up here, stranded on the municipal football field in al-Tabqa, sleeping and living in inhumane conditions, without a safe shelter for the winter,” says 32-year-old Arin Suleiman, a mother of four, including one child showing signs of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). For many, this is the third time they have been displaced since 2018: first from Afrin to Tall Rifat, after to Manbij and finally Al Tabqah.
Mustafa Rashid, head of the internally displaced persons camp in al-Tabqa stadium, elaborates on the situation in this camp: “There are about 150,000 displaced people in Al-Tabqa, with about 1,300 families sheltering in this camp, more than 2,000 are spread out in other places like schools or mosques, and about 200 are homeless,” explains the 55-year-old grey-bearded man. “The tents are overcrowded, there is no privacy, and sanitation conditions are dire,” he continues. The rest of the displaced are scattered in other cantons, such as Qamishli and Kobane, facing similar conditions.
Sitting beside him, Nisrine Fahima, 42, highlights the severe impact on education and health: “Classes are suspended, bringing on serious educational setbacks. Waterborne diseases are spreading due to bacterial contamination, and we have no doctors. Two infants under one year old have already died because of the cold,” she continues. “An elderly woman also died due to the lack of medical care. There are no medications either, and many people suffer from chronic illnesses like cancer or require dialysis. And that’s not even mentioning the immense psychological trauma we have endured,” Fahima explains, her face tense with worry as she warms herself by the heater.
Non-governmental organizations such as the Kurdish Red Crescent and UNICEF have sent aid, but it remains insufficient, further compounded by a lack of advanced medical equipment. “Shortages have become our reality,” Fahima concludes. “The humanitarian situation is disastrous.”
The Problem of Integration
Slowly but surely, AANES leaders have established an open channel for negotiations with the new authorities in Damascus regarding the future of their people, who made up 10 percent of the country’s pre-war population. Their demands do not include full autonomy with an independent government and parliament; rather, they seek decentralization— in other words, the ability to manage their day-to-day affairs.
However, the new authorities are aligned with the Turkish-backed armed groups that launched an offensive against the Kurds in December, exploiting the chaos that followed Assad’s fall. While HTS leadership attempts to show restraint and integrate the estranged communities, it remains deeply dependent on external actors such as Ankara, Riyadh and Doha. The ongoing conflict carries significant implications for Syria’s future as its new government— led by the former Islamist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) —seeks to consolidate power and begin reconstruction after almost 14 years of civil war, while simultaneously pursuing a form of relative autonomy..
In a closed-door meeting between Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly known Mohammed al-Jolani) and Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan, their alliance was explicitly sealed. Al-Sharaa expressed that Syria sought a “deep, strategic relationship in all fields” that would benefit both countries. He also highlighted the need for a “shared strategy to confront security threats in the region,” specifically mentioning northeastern Syria, which remains “under the control of a Kurdish-led militia that is not under the HTS authority.” Although not yet directly involved in the conflict, al-Sharaa expressed his willingness to cooperate in confronting what he termed “northern terrorism.”
The fate of AANES remains unclear, as the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump has decided to abandon its former military allies, effectively dismantling the alliance that had defeated ISIS and served as a key factor in preventing its resurgence. So far, negotiations remain stalled as the economic and humanitarian conditions for the Kurds continue to deteriorate.
