To everyone’s surprise, Donald Trump announced last month in Riyadh that he would lift the economic sanctions imposed on Syria. The following day, he met with Ahmad al-Shara of Syria and Prince Muhammad Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia at the Royal Palace in a photo that will go down in history. The moment marked the restoration of relations between the United States and Syria after 25 years, opening a new chapter between the two countries.
Trump stated that he would lift the sanctions “to make them [Syria] great.” The news comes after 14 years of war devastation in the country. Syria was particularly hard hit by the sanctions imposed by Western countries on the former Assad regime and its business allies, but which primarily affected the poor and working-class population.
It was a classic Trump move: the surprise, the abrupt about-turn, the shock that even caught members of his own cabinet off guard. Although there is still no clear plan for how the resurgence will take place or how long it will take, celebrations spread throughout Syria, renewing the hopes of the population. The songs of the revolution were once again repeated in the streets: “One, one, one, the Syrian people are one.”
After December 8, the new Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) government focused its calls for the lifting of sanctions as one of the pillars of the country’s reconstruction. While the political transition progresses slowly, the economy continues to sink under the weight of foreign sanctions, leaving ordinary citizens bearing the brunt of the crisis. If Trump’s promise is fulfilled in the medium term, it would provide a major boost to the consolidation of the Al-Sham government.
Why is the lifting of sanctions so important? Syria has been unable to recover since the overthrow of Assad. For now, the situation is bleak: in Damascus, residents only have a few hours of electricity a day, while in other areas, conditions are even worse. The price of bread has increased eightfold since December, condemning people to hunger. Meanwhile, many queue for hours at ATMs, desperate to withdraw the few bills they have left before they run out.
Currency and fuel prices fluctuate with volatility, even appreciating sharply after Trump’s announcement. While the flow of imports is increasing, a shortage of physical cash and a lack of digital payment options mean few Syrians can afford to buy new goods. This occurs at a time when 69% of the population ( 14 million) live below the poverty line. The initial optimism following Assad’s fall has quickly faded due to a lack of jobs and widespread destruction in the country, which tarnishes the image of the new government. While much of this economic hardship is the result of decades of dictatorship, civil war, and months of post-regime instability, sanctions by the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) remained a major cause.
Destructive Sanctions
For more than a decade, the Assad government was punished with a package of autonomous economic sanctions in 2011 in response to the violent repression against civilians protesting against the crisis and the regime at the time. The United States and the European Union used these economic tools to try to pressure Assad into changing his policies, and in many ways they succeeded: they isolated him economically, reduced his military capability, and drew global condemnation for his use of chemical weapons and the destruction that led to famine.
But these sanctions had a side effect : they collapsed the Syrian economy, fostering the development of the black market and increasing economic speculation during the war. Fatima Sayd, a 32-year-old agricultural engineer, explains to Daraj that “many of the companies belong to the Assad family or their associates.”
The engineer added: “All these businesses triggered a vicious cycle under the sanctions.” On the other hand, they fostered the emergence of a regime-linked oligarchy that dominated the rest of the private sector, while opening the door to military aid from Russia and Iran. In other words, the sanctions politically strengthened the regime and its allies while harming the public.
The regime’s marginalization on a global scale turned all Syrians into pariahs. “The sanctions affect all sectors; we are not an independent country,” says Fatima. It pushed the working population into a life of informal labor and, often, dependence on patronage. Indeed, over the past decade, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shrunk by 53 percent, along with an 84 percent collapse in economic activity in the same years. This represents a brutal drop in living standards: more than 90 percent of Syrians now live below the poverty line, and more than half of the workforce is unemployed . Zaid Samad, a 45-year-old taxi driver, explains that “the sanctions destroyed our industry. There is no capacity here to produce basic necessities.” He goes on to explain the problem: “We can’t import [basic necessities], and many people have lost their jobs.”
The announcement would immediately require Qatar to provide the $29 million monthly payment it had promised Syria for three months to pay public sector salaries, but which had been postponed due to US sanctions. This would give the government some respite from growing discontent in the sector.
So far, persistent US sanctions, which prohibit virtually all trade and financial transactions, have prevented the entry of investment and hindered the growth of small and medium-sized businesses, which are unable to obtain credit to start or develop their businesses, which could help rebuild the country. EU sanctions have targeted crude oil, investment, banking, telecommunications, and other sectors. The excuse has been the burden of HTS’s militant past. Banks continue to refuse to process payments in the country, while traders are unable to legally import goods, driving up the traffic of essential materials at ports and raising overall prices across all sectors.
They also inhibit, along with the resulting political instability, the return of the Syrian diaspora with vocational training that could contribute to the country’s reconstruction. As a result, Syria is far from securing the investment needed for the urgent reconstruction effort, the cost of which is estimated at between $250 billion and $1 trillion. At least 140,000 buildings, along with 3,000 schools and hospitals , among other infrastructure, remain in ruins .
Vote of Confidence
Donald Trump’s change of tone is surprising. Until now, al-Shara was considered a “terrorist” by the United States, but now the president called him a “tough man with a difficult past.” This change is a victory for the Syrian leader, who recently strolled alongside Emmanuel Macron on the Eiffel Tower. Over the months, al-Shara, with the help of Erdogan of Turkey, focused his efforts on convincing the West that he would build a new Syria.
The new announcement marks a new path more than five months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, when the United States and the European Union had been looking for ways to relax sanctions and facilitate the arrival of basic services to Syria . Trump has reconsidered that the government to which they were previously applied is no longer in power. So far, however, the small easing of European sanctions has been insufficient, producing no immediate substantive results. It also maintains the same strangulation regime, making it difficult for the Syrian government to provide for the population’s basic needs, with the risk of further destabilization.
The goal remains the same: to force the (new) government to maintain control over the political process in order to follow a path in line with Western standards, establish big business, and, above all, redraw the map of the Middle East vis-à-vis Iran and Russia.
This lifting of sanctions can be understood as part of Trump’s approach to the Middle East to consolidate his allies in the face of strategic competition with China on a global scale. He has shifted from pressuring the Syrian government to conform to Western standards to offering a friendly, blind-trust approach.
For al-Shara, resolving the sanctions issue was key to restoring the country’s shattered economy. Trump heeded the call, giving the new leader a vote of confidence. To lift them, the West needed al-Shara to demonstrate that it could restore stability and national unity. But the catastrophic situation in Latakia and Tartus, where massacres against Alawites took place in March, and the sectarian violence against the Druze in Damascus and Suweyda, show that those goals are far off. The only thing sustaining the government is broad domestic support and the resilience of the Syrian population.
Business is Business
Although Trump presented several demands to the Syrian president, they are not conditional. Among them, according to press aide Karoline Levitt , he expressed his desire for Syria to join the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel. While Syria has repeatedly rejected this approach, arguing that Israel has occupied much of the Golan Heights since 1967 and has bombed the country more than 600 times since the fall of Assad, al-Shara has recently acknowledged that it is holding talks to resolve the conflict. However, the entire scene, including the agreement with the Houthis following the attack on Tel Aviv airport and his intentions to renegotiate the nuclear program with Iran, sends a message to Netanyahu that Washington’s priorities lie elsewhere. From the Israeli perspective, the United States would be strengthening its enemies, which would create a difficult rift between the two countries.
The US president also urged the Syrian leader to take responsibility for combating the ISIS emergency and controlling the detention centers housing its fighters in northeastern Syria. He also demanded that he deport what he called Palestinian “terrorists.” Until now, the United States has supported the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in managing ISIS prisons and centers like Al Hawl. But this support has diminished since Trump took office, seeking a rapid withdrawal, jeopardizing the precarious stability of these facilities.
Al-Sharaa also conveyed Syria’s interest in partnering with American companies and signing agreements in the oil and gas sectors, in exchange for lifting sanctions and allowing international participation in Syria’s reconstruction. The meeting was also a profound gesture to White House allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, following the signing of investment agreements worth $600 billion and $1.4 trillion, respectively, with American companies.
Syria is collapsing on the brink of an economic catastrophe that will block any possibility of building a future for the country free from tension and violence. New relations with the United States are not without strings attached, which will maintain the same global Western policy toward vulnerable countries. Trump’s objectives in Syria and the region are clear—with or without sanctions—the country will be governed from the outside by economic force at the service of foreign corporations. Ultimately, what matters to the American president is business.
