A full-scale war in South Lebanon is no longer a distant possibility; it’s drawing closer to becoming a reality. In Israel, there seems to be consensus on very little except one thing: war with Lebanon. Surprisingly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one of the calmest voices when it comes to the question of initiating a northern conflict. Even Benny Gantz, Israel’s Defense Minister, often considered a dove within the government, is pushing for action sooner rather than later, stating in Washington just yesterday, “The time has come for the North.” It goes without saying that figures like Itamar Ben Gvir are even more eager for it.

What’s new on this front is the visit of U.S. Central Command Chief General Michael Erik Kurilla to Israel, where he inspected the “northern front,” specifically the border with Lebanon. Meanwhile, Lebanon remains a bystander to the escalating tensions along its southern borders—a fact that everyone, near and far, understands well.

Despite the increasingly aggressive Israeli rhetoric, Lebanon has taken few steps to address the potential for escalation. However, yesterday, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati summoned ambassadors of major world powers to brief them on the growing Israeli threats. He did this despite his complete lack of knowledge about the war’s developments. As Lebanon’s acting head of the executive branch, especially amid the ongoing presidential vacuum, Mikati sought to make it clear that the international community bears responsibility for any potential Israeli aggression.

Mikati seems perfectly suited to stay in his position indefinitely. Hezbollah wants him, and so does Nabih Berri, the eternal speaker of Lebanon’s parliament. Mikati’s tenure serves the interests of those who aim to keep Lebanon a mere playground for foreign powers, a land without a functioning state, sovereignty, or rule of law. He is the void filled by Hezbollah, a state that has willingly vanished. Corruption is the only sign of its existence, serving to deepen the misery of its people.

The polarization Lebanon is experiencing as a result of this equation is perhaps more intense than anything we’ve seen before. On one side, we have the complete paralysis of the state, and on the other, a growing Christian resentment, driven by the belief that their “partners in the nation” have fully taken control of the country’s institutions.

This dynamic has allowed the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to rise meteorically, positioning himself at the forefront of opposition. Meanwhile, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) has been left in disarray due to internal divisions and its ambiguous stance on a potential southern conflict. 

Another noteworthy development amid this tension is the parallel “militization” suggested by the Lebanese Forces’ Martyrs’ Day celebrations. The anthem was filled with nostalgia for the days of armed struggle, and the organizers’ efforts to emulate those times hinted that the allure of armed conflict may be taking root once again in the collective consciousness of some groups.

So, Lebanon awaits war, amid unprecedented internal divisions. The incendiary rhetoric from Hezbollah, its media, and its spokespeople targeting Christian forces, even the Maronite Patriarchate, indicates that the country is heading toward war with a knife in its back. And Najib Mikati’s mere presence is insufficient to legitimize the decision made on behalf of the Lebanese people to go to war.

There’s little time for us to bemoan our situation, as the war is at our doorstep. The country’s leaders, officials, and bank owners have already sent their families abroad. The Côte d’Azur remains busy, despite the arrival of autumn.

Meanwhile, the poor citizens of Lebanon, whom Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah addressed in his recent speech, urging them to return to their homes after he “fulfilled his promise” and avenged the assassination of Fuad Shukr, remain gripped by fear as the signs of war begin to loom once again over their heads.

The Lebanese authorities have nothing to say about the impending war. There are no evacuation plans, no relief programs—not to mention the absence of any real stance on the war or any capacity to mitigate the potential damage.

Given this bleak scene, one might as well surrender to fate. The average Lebanese citizen is not a true citizen, nor are they part of a functioning society. They are just a pawn in a landscape where everything has been “militized”. The term “militization” (derived from “militia”) has even found its way into the political lexicon, used to describe the situation across all the so-called “resistance crescent” countries (Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen). And it’s worth noting that every one of these countries has its own version of a “Mikati.”

Something has shifted in the American stance on a potential war with Lebanon. The visit by the U.S. general to the Israeli army’s northern command is a sign that should not be ignored. Meanwhile, the increasing intensity of airstrikes, particularly on Syrian targets, is part of the same war rhetoric, an attempt to preemptively cut off supply lines.

So, once again, it’s time to buckle up and prepare for what’s to come.