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Will The Political Transition to a Secular State Take Place in Syria?

Published on 26.12.2024
Reading time: 3 minutes

In the upcoming transitional period, a power struggle is expected, coinciding with a race for positions. Competing factions of the status quo will clash with other segments of society.


Political transition in Syria requires the presence of political and civil institutions that represent a broad spectrum of society. However, the former regime systematically destroyed civil, political, and social institutions, leaving a fragmented society devoid of effective organizations, broad-based political parties, or unified ideas.

Currently, only three military institutions exist: Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the National Army under the Syrian National Coalition, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Political parties and civil society organizations remain local, fragmented, and often in competition with each other.

In the upcoming transitional period, a power struggle is expected, coinciding with a race for positions. Competing factions of the status quo will clash with other segments of society. This conflict will likely devolve into populist rhetoric, focusing on figures such as Ahmad al-Sharaa, while navigating the arduous path toward drafting a new constitution and holding general elections. Can the Syrian people’s various forces reach a broad agreement on fundamental principles to illuminate the murky road ahead?

The opposition’s political and social elites have largely failed to agree on a unified vision, instead centering their efforts on individuals and slogans. This fixation has stripped the concept of a civil state of its essence and contributed to the fragmentation of the opposition, which in turn allowed the regime’s killing and displacement machine to persist for over thirteen years.

The transition to a modern civil state requires, above all else, a culture of civility—a culture of dialogue, disagreement, negotiation, and consensus-building. Civilized societies unite around ideas and principles, while oppressed societies rally around individuals and slogans.

Since the “Damascus Spring” movement began, visions and principles for building a new, free, and civil Syria have started to take shape. These include the National Charter of 2004, the Syrian National Covenant issued during the opposition’s Cairo meeting in 2012, and the Syrian Islamic Council’s Vision of 2024. In 2022, a group of Syrian Americans proposed condensing these ideas into ten guiding principles as a starting point for national dialogue, with the hope of uniting Syrian national forces around a shared vision and national charter reflecting common ground across Syria’s diverse communities.

To achieve a unified national charter, points of contention must be set aside, and a national consensus must be reached on the fundamentals of the desired civil state. These fundamentals can be summarized into two interconnected themes: “The freedom and dignity of the Syrian people” and “Guarantees for the peaceful transfer of power.”

Participants in the anticipated Syrian National Conference must prioritize these objectives and adopt these fundamental principles without delay or compromise.

The most pressing priority is ensuring the freedom and dignity of the Syrian people. Freedom is indivisible—personal freedoms, religious freedoms, and freedom of opinion and expression must be safeguarded. No Syrian should ever again fear being abducted in the dead of night and disappearing forever.

True freedom cannot be achieved unless strict limits are placed on authority to prevent the emergence of another dictatorship. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. To ensure that elections and the voice of the Syrian people remain the foundation of governance, constitutional principles must include:Banning military rule, separation of executive, legislative, and judicial powers, granting wide-ranging decentralized powers to provinces and cities, and mandating the peaceful transfer of power.

Syrians must not lose their direction amid the upcoming struggles between various forms of political Islam and secular forces. The guiding compass must always point toward ensuring the freedom and dignity of the Syrian people and the inevitability of peaceful power transitions.