It has been a fierce battle raging for months against the backdrop of raids, arrests, and forced deportations led by the Lebanese army. Now that the whirlwind has diminished somewhat we can delve into the debate about Syrian refugees in Lebanon, away from the mines that were, intentionally or not, planted here and there.
The battle would have been long over if it boiled down to a simple dualism such as upholding vs. violating human rights or hosting vs. deporting refugees. Yet, it is a lot more complicated than that.
It is a battle bewildering those who venture beyond the public spectacle and dive into the tragic stories of the displaced. It is a battle in which rival parties use “human shields,” as they alternate between the victim and racist role. It is a battle in which numbers are used as missiles, suggesting that stats are sacred, non-politicized and objective, representing an absolute truth.
To have a proper debate we need to break free from the simple dualism of good and evil, abandon moral slogans and racial judgments levied against those who dare acknowledge that the demographic burden cannot be disregarded.
A burden that undermines any attempt to compare Lebanon’s predicament with that of Jordan, Egypt, or any other country, as according to the UN Refugee Agency Lebanon hosts the highest number of refugees per capita in the world.
To have a proper debate it is imperative to transcend the many superstitions on all sides. The aim thereby is not to proclaim the “absolute truth,” but to show it is not solely a moral battle, not just a human rights battle, not only a battle against racism.
The issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon is an intricate matter that requires navigating multiple perspectives.
Competing Narratives
One dominant narrative that has emerged promotes the myth that Syrian refugees are responsible for plunging Lebanon into an irrevocable crisis, which can only be resolved by their departure.
Another stresses the positive impact the refugees have had, suggesting they had no or a limited impact on Lebanon’s economy and livelihoods. A third focuses on human rights and the need to protect refugees through a global framework of international law.
The latter often comes with a moral overtone that can even cross over into a sense of superiority, ruthlessly responding to any reservations or queries that dare start with the word “but.”
The use of the word “but” is strictly prohibited. Questions starting with “but” are taboo. “But can Lebanon bear the burden? But how will the Syrian presence affect the demographic makeup of the country?”
Anyone who dares to raise them will be silenced with the charge of racism or accused of being against harmless refugees who fled a dictator’s tyranny.
The rhetoric is backed by a legal jargon that has become almost authoritarian, as it dismisses any authentic concerns of ordinary citizens for whom it no longer suffices to simply state:
“Lebanon, as a nation and a signatory to the Convention against Torture is committed to not repatriating or extraditing individuals at risk of torture, and upholds the principle of non-refoulment under customary international law, which prohibits the return of any person to a place where they may face persecution or other grave human rights violations.”
Yet, an ordinary citizen is only concerned about Lebanon’s future, seeing the current economic and financial crisis, while dealing with a refugee crisis as well. International organizations regularly remind us that for every four Lebanese citizens, there is one Syrian refugee, who seems unlikely to return any time soon.
Battling Numbers
The competing narratives regarding Syrian refugees tend to use numbers as fuel, thereby overlooking the fact that numbers are generated by analytical frameworks focusing on certain aspects, while disregarding others. It is a game played by institutions that each have a particular “agenda,” a term used neutrally here, without negative connotations.
The following points have become a breeding ground for superstitions. Through deconstructing them, the intention is not to assign blame but rather to illustrate that no one is winning the battle by numbers. It is better to stop planting such “statistical mines” and instead initiate a discussion about Syrian refugees beyond good and evil.
1. The Demographic Burden and the Question of Identity
The Lebanese ratio of refugees per capita is one of the world’s highest. This requires a crisis management approach that is not limited to the humanitarian aspect – which is a duty – nor the diplomatic maneuvering of politicians, ministers and religious leaders.
It requires a social perspective that acknowledges valid concerns expressed by ordinary citizens. Away from the campaigns undertaken by “online armies,” which are generally driven by a political and partisan agendas, Lebanon’s citizens ask sincere and legitimate questions.
Has Lebanon become a permanent homeland for Syrian refugees? How will this mass of non-citizens affect the country’s identity, demographics, and social fabric? Other questions concern customs and traditions. Some have a very right-wing character, but fact is they are being asked. Can anyone answer them calmly?
Of course, Lebanon lacks a homogeneous national identity. Instead it embraces a diverse range of customs, traditions, and lifestyles. Lebanon is like a mosaic of transient identities governed by a sectarian political system, influenced by geopolitical calculations and, at times, class affiliations.
Having said that, it is impossible to overlook the potential ramifications of 1.6 million refugees on the country’s social fabric, given that, for example, most Syrian refugees stem from the countryside and most are Sunni muslims.
2. The War Generation
According to the UN Refugee Agency, Lebanon in 2016 hosted nearly half a million school-aged children. Unfortunately, about half of them remained out of school. The situation worsened due to the practices of the Lebanese Ministry of Education, which required official documentation that most Syrians simply cannot obtain. Human Rights Watch qualified the policy as a “discriminatory practice.”
In addition, there are such issues as transportation costs, the deteriorating economic and financial situation, and the Lebanese authorities’ failure to manage the public education crisis.
As a consequence, the number of school-age Syrian refugee children has risen to some 660,000. Shockingly, according to the UN, about a third has never attended school, and some 60% have not been enrolled in recent years.
These children, deprived of education, were born during the Syrian War and do not know any other home than Lebanon. Their sheer number requires a realistic approach to address, among other matters, educational integration.
3. Positive and Negative Economic Impact
Ever since the influx of Syrian refugees started, various entities have tried to examine the consequences for the Lebanese economy. However, it is important to note that Lebanon’s political elite has often resorted to using the presence of Syrian refugees as a scapegoat.
For example, Riad Salameh, Governor of the Lebanese Central Bank (BDL), frequently highlighted the burden imposed by Syrian refugees before Lebanon’s financial and economic crisis unfolded. Similarly, Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, exploited the issue as a means to deflect any criticism directed at Michel Aoun’s presidency.
In early 2023, Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, referred to Syrian refugees as part of the American siege on Lebanon. In such an exploitative and politicized climate, it is hard to present an alternative view.
Adding to the difficulty is a surge in studies prior to the crisis that often sought to magnify the positive impact of Syrian refugees on the Lebanese economy.
For instance, in 2015, a joint study by the United Nations Development Program and UN Refugee Agency claimed that for every dollar spent on the humanitarian response, 50 cents were added to the Lebanese economy.
However, studies that predominantly focus on the positive, adopt a very narrow perspective when measuring economic impact. For example, they tend to overlook such crucial factors as the impact on public finances, investments, and the labor market.
In the “battle of the numbers” often contradictory conclusions emerge. For example, while some studies embrace positivity, the World Bank warned in a 2013 study about the negative impact of Syrian refugees, which it claimed could lead to a GDP contraction of some 2.9%.
The study also warned that the presence of Syrian refugees could push up to 170,000 Lebanese below the poverty line due to increased competition in the informal labor market and price hikes for essential goods.
What I am trying to say is that different analytical perspectives will produce a difference in measuring impacts and thus easily promote “superstitions.”
4. The Lebanese Workforce
While some politicians and people call on Lebanese employers not to hire any Syrian workers, even holding racist pleas against them, there are others who welcome them with open arms and blame all problems on the absence of control in the Lebanese labor market.
They do so based on certain studies that have examined the impact of Syrian labor in Lebanon. For example, a 2021 study by the World Refugee and Migration Council claims that the presence of Syrian refugees had no negative impact on the Lebanese labor market.
However, it simplified the matter to two indicators: unemployment rate and size of the Lebanese workforce. This means the study tracked changes in the formal labor market but overlooked the informal sector. How can this huge demographic burden, about half of which is of working age, not affect the informal market?
Now, of course, one could argue that this is a matter related to lack of regulation. But governance in Lebanon is generally weak, including the labor market.
In conclusion, shedding light on these four issues is not meant to simplify what is happening in the Lebanese arena or underestimate the rights-based approach, which is necessary for protecting those who need protecting.
The aim is just to show that any approach that involves ordinary citizens in a game of numbers, counter-numbers, and frames without discussing their concerns, excluding them by using racist labels, is very limited.
Yes, the demographic burden has repercussions.
Lebanon is not Jordan or Egypt. Not in size, not in structure, and not in terms of its complex relation with Syria.
